VMG Weekly Rate Tracker – 12/02/2014

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending yesterday’s late selling. The major stock indexes are showing gains with the Dow up 71 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (2.27%), which with weakness late yesterday should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point if comparing to Monday’s early pricing.

There was nothing of relevance posted this morning, but tomorrow has three reports that may influence mortgage rates. The first is the ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the company’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week’s calendar. Analysts are expecting to see 225,000 new private-sector payrolls for November.

The second piece of data is the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers at 8:30 AM ET. This index is expected to show a small upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It’s the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 2.4%, up from the previous estimate of 2.0%. The higher the reading, the better the news for the bond market. Although, this report generally does not have a noticeable impact on mortgage pricing, so it will take a wide variance to draw much attention. 

And the final release of the day we need to watch is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover and details economic conditions by Fed region. That information is relied upon heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any noticeable changes from the last update. More times than not though, this report will not influence the markets enough to cause intra-day changes to mortgage rates, but the potential to do so does exist. Therefore, look for a reaction to come during mid-afternoon trading tomorrow.