Vantage Spring 2025 Newsletter
MORTGAGE RATES, TARIFF NEWS, AND VOLATILITY
WHEN IS IT A GOOD TIME TO REFINANCE?
Most of you who purchased in mid-2022 and beyond are locked in at higher mortgage rates and have been waiting for an opportunity to refinance. Last year, we hit a low point from September to October that was shortly lived, and rates spiked. We are now watching closely again for those who may benefit and will be in touch as we reach those levels again. Please also contact us for an updated benefits worksheet, all rate options, and recapture math. We will also be working on updating anyone for new opportunities, so please look out for that, along with our loan comparison worksheets and complete rate sheet recapture analysis.
The news is delayed or missing details when it says that rates fall, but they have been falling recently due to the stock market hits and investors moving to more secure bonds over the tariff news uncertainty. Rates are very volatile, up and down daily, so we track the markets analytically. Below is a glimpse of the 10-year treasury note trend that mortgage rates have closely followed over the last six months.
***Please remember to be careful of any solicitation from your existing loan servicer and others that can result in higher rates and fees if not shopped. We have seen limited benefits, and lenders are stripping equity or being misleading with rates and fees that are too high or not financially favorable on recapture analysis. Many servicers also have false claims on discounts when their rates and fees are higher (remember, they don’t own your loan- they only service it). We force lenders to compete to ensure the best outcome, so please always contact us with questions.
WEBSITE UPDATE & FOCUS ON LENDER COMPETITION AND CONSUMER EDUCATION
We’re excited to share our new website with you. Please also share with anyone buying or looking into refinancing a home. Check it out!
We are making our message loud and clear for others to see and hear as independent mortgage leaders in the Pacific Northwest. While most mortgage companies are not independent, many who are supposed to be and claim to be are also not independent. The data shows that they do not embrace lender competition and steer either intentionally or unintentionally one or very few lenders. We will always embrace a fiduciary nature and all that competition offers by comparing the country’s top-priced 35-40 wholesale lenders- better performance at a lower cost.
Our wholesale lenders COMPETE, we COMPARE, and then quickly CLOSE.
HERE’S WHAT A RECESSION COULD MEAN FOR THE HOUSING MARKET
Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.
Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.
A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall
Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.
In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph) So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.
Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions
While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph). So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.
Bottom Line
The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.
RISING INVENTORY MEANS THIS SPRING COULD BE YOUR MOMENT
Want to know two reasons this spring might finally be your time to buy? Inventory has grown and sellers may be more willing to negotiate as a result. That means you’ve got more options and more power than buyers have had in years. Let’s break it down.
You Have More Homes To Choose From
The number of homes for sale this February was higher than it’s been in any of the past five Februarys – and that’s great news for your home search. This graph uses the latest data from Realtor.com to show the supply of homes on the market has grown by 27.5% in just the last year.
More choices for your search is a good thing – and experts also say that inventory is projected to continue rising this year, which is even better. It means it should be easier to find something that checks your most important boxes. But that’s not all this does for you.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains some of the other perks of more inventory, beyond just having more homes to consider:
“Buyers will not only have more home options . . . but they are also likely to find somewhat lower asking prices and more time to make decisions – all buyer-friendly factors as we inch closer to the busy homebuying season.”
You May Find Sellers Are Doing Price Cuts
Now that buyers have more options, some homes are sitting on the market a little longer – especially those that were priced too high from the start. And the result is more sellers are having to drop their prices to draw buyers back in. Just take a look at the numbers.
According to Realtor.com, the number of listings with price reductions has gone up compared to the last few years (see graph)
This is a sign sellers are more willing to compromise today. If you look back to more normal years in the market (2017–2019), you’ll see that the number of price cuts happening today is much closer to what’s typical – and for most buyers, that’s a big relief.
What does that mean for you? It could give you a better chance to negotiate – whether that’s on price, closing costs, or even repairs. While not every seller will adjust their price, more of them are willing to do it – giving you more leverage than buyers have in quite a while.
Bottom Line
If you’ve been on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to buy, this spring could be the opening you’ve been hoping for.
Of course, every market is different, and working with a local expert can help you work through your options. If you want to talk about what’s happening in your area or get started on your home search, connect with one of our Mortgage Brokers today.
We will always follow transparency and best practices at VMB:
- We embrace lender competition and shop our network of wholesale lending partners to ensure you receive accurate data and benefits without surprises later.
- We produce the rate sheet and all options for a detailed recapture analysis and understanding of the options now or in the future.
- We provide all costs or credits up front. We advise locking at application, as that makes the refinance to see terms that will not vary. We also provide the option to finance costs or not, with pros and cons.
- We embrace analytical accuracy on 3rd party closing costs and prepaids.
- We are confident in our ability to offer the most competitive options, but in the rare case we do not, we will tell you and confirm the best course of action.
Again, don’t hesitate to contact your VMB Broker for a quick update or to keep track of our custom loan comparison, benefits worksheet, and rate sheets.
OREGON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW
Median Sale Price:
$504,900
+3.2% year-over-year
# of Homes Sold:
3,042
+2.1% year-over-year
Median Days on Market:
56
-1 year-over-year
In February 2025, home prices in Oregon were up 3.2% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $504,900. On average, the number of homes sold was up 2.1% year over year and there were 3,042 homes sold in February this year, up 2,972 homes sold in February last year. The median days on the market was 56 days, down 1 year over year.
WASHINGTON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW
Median Sale Price:
$629,600
+1.8% year-over-year
# of Homes Sold:
5,594
+2.2% year-over-year
Median Days on Market:
35
+4 year-over-year
In February 2025, home prices in Washington were up 1.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $629,600. On average, the number of homes sold was up 2.2% year over year and there were 5,594 homes sold in February this year, up 5,480 homes sold in February last year. The median days on the market was 35 days, up 4 year over year.
IDAHO HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW
Median Sale Price:
$484,700
+0.4% year-over-year
# of Homes Sold:
1,903
+8.4% year-over-year
Median Days on Market:
71
+7 year-over-year
In February 2025, home prices in Idaho were up 0.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $484,700. On average, the number of homes sold was up 8.4% year over year and there were 1,903 homes sold in February this year, up 1,755 homes sold in February last year. The median days on the market was 71 days, up 7 year over year.
WE APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!
Thank you so much for referring your friends, family, and co-workers to us when you hear they are in the market to buy a home or refinance. We greatly appreciate it and rely on these referrals to best serve all in the Pacific NW.
To reiterate from the last newsletter, we greatly appreciate the support of our clients and business partners referring anyone to us who may be active in this market. Mortgage lenders are not created equal and competition is vital. As a fiduciary shopping the top wholesale lenders in the country on the same identical agency loans, the value in a market like today is priceless. Interest rates and the math associated with amortization schedules and monthly repayment amounts are vital today. Again, thank you for the continued support of our long-time local team of experts and price leaders.
Reach out to a VMB team member for any questions on rate trends or scenarios.
Related Posts
