Vantage Spring 2026 Newsletter

Waiting to Refinance? Here’s What the Data Actually Says Right Now

If you’ve been waiting to refinance, you’re not alone.

For the past two years, millions of homeowners have been sitting on the sidelines asking the same question:

“Should I wait for rates to drop… or act now?”

Let’s walk through what’s actually happening in today’s market, without the noise.

Where Mortgage Rates Are Today

The Big Picture: Where Rates Are Headed

Why Rates Keep Moving (And Why It Matters)

Mortgage rates aren’t controlled directly by the Fed.

They move based on:

• Inflation trends
• Bond market volatility
• Global events (yes, even geopolitical conflicts)
• Investor demand for mortgage-backed securities

Recent rate swings have been driven heavily by global instability and inflation concerns, which have delayed expected rate cuts

Translation:

Rates can drop… and then jump right back up.

What This Means for Refinancing

Here’s the mistake most people make:

They treat refinancing like a timing game.

It’s not.

It’s a math decision.

Scenario 1 – Waiting for the “Perfect Rate”

You might wait:

• 6 months
• 12 months
• Longer

And maybe rates improve by:

• 0.25%
• 0.50%

But:

• You’ve made higher payments the entire time
• You’ve delayed savings
• And there’s no guarantee timing works in your favor

Scenario 2 – Strategic Refinancing

Instead of trying to “win the market,” you:

• Refinance when the numbers make sense today
• Capture immediate monthly savings or restructure debt
• Refinance again later if rates improve further

Because yes…

• You can refinance more than once.

The Most Important Concept: Recapture

This is where almost everyone gets it wrong.

Refinancing isn’t about chasing the lowest rate.

It’s about:

How long it takes to recover your costs and start winning financially.

Closing costs still typically run 2%–6% of the loan amount

So the real question is:

Are you spending $3,000 to save $50/month…

or $3,000 to save $300/month?

That’s the difference between a smart refinance and a bad one.

What We’re Seeing Right Now

There are three groups of borrowers today:

1. Waiting indefinitely

Hoping for rates in the 4s again

(That’s unlikely anytime soon)

2. Missing opportunities

Because they’re focused on headlines instead of math

3. Making calculated moves

Refinancing when it makes sense now

With a plan to adjust later

The Bottom Line

Rates are improving, but slowly.

Volatility is here to stay.

And timing the market perfectly is not a strategy.

Math is.

If the numbers work today, you move.

If they don’t, you wait.

If rates improve later, you adjust.

That’s how you win in this market.

Our Approach

We don’t guess where rates are going.

We break down:

• Your current loan
• Today’s options
• Your true recapture timeline
• And your long-term strategy

Then we make a decision based on facts.

Because at the end of the day:

You don’t refinance because of rates.

You refinance because of the outcome.

If you want a quick breakdown of whether refinancing makes sense for you right now, we’ll run the numbers with you.

FHFA, VantageScore, and the Real Cost of “Competition” in Credit Scoring

A quiet but important shift is starting to take shape in the mortgage world.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has been exploring broader use of VantageScore as an alternative to the long-dominant FICO model in conventional lending.

At first glance, this looks like a win for consumers.

More competition.

More options.

Potentially lower costs.

But as always in mortgage lending… the truth lives in the details.

Why This Matters

Today, FICO effectively operates as a gatekeeper in mortgage credit scoring. Lenders are required to pull FICO scores for agency loans, and those scores are not cheap. The cost of credit reports and scoring has increased significantly over the years, and those costs are ultimately passed on to consumers.

FHFA opening the door to VantageScore introduces something this space hasn’t truly had in decades:

Real competition.

And when competition enters a market, two things usually happen:

• Prices come down
• Innovation speeds up

That’s the upside everyone is talking about.

The Good

1. Pressure on FICO’s Pricing Model

FICO has had pricing power for years. Introducing VantageScore creates downward pressure on what many in the industry consider excessive fees for credit reports and scoring.

2. Expanded Credit Access

VantageScore uses a broader dataset and can score consumers with thinner credit files. That could mean more borrowers becoming eligible who were previously “unscorable” under traditional FICO models.

3. Faster Innovation

When companies have to compete, they improve. That applies to scoring models, data accuracy, and predictive performance.

The Not-So-Good

1. More Complexity for Consumers

Instead of one standard, we may now have multiple scoring models in play. A borrower could look “qualified” under one model and not another. That creates confusion, not clarity.

2. Potential for Inconsistent Lending Decisions

If lenders begin choosing between scoring models, it introduces variability into underwriting. That can lead to different outcomes for the same borrower depending on the lender or model used.

3. Implementation Costs (That Don’t Disappear)

Updating systems, underwriting engines, and compliance frameworks isn’t free. Those costs don’t vanish… they often find their way back into the transaction somewhere.

4. The Illusion of Savings

Just because a new competitor enters the space doesn’t guarantee meaningful cost reductions for consumers. The mortgage ecosystem has a way of redistributing costs rather than eliminating them.

What This Really Means For You

This isn’t just about FICO vs. VantageScore.

It’s about something much bigger:

Who controls the cost and accessibility of credit in the mortgage process.

For years, that control has been concentrated. FHFA introducing competition is a step toward breaking that concentration, but it won’t be perfect, and it won’t be immediate.

The Bottom Line

Competition is almost always a good thing.

But in mortgage lending, how that competition is implemented matters just as much as the fact that it exists.

If done right:

• Consumers could benefit from lower costs and broader access

If done poorly:

• We end up with more confusion, inconsistent outcomes, and hidden costs in different places

Our Approach

OREGON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In March 2026, home prices in Oregon were down 0.2% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $507,900. On average, the number of homes sold was up 7.2% year over year and there were 3,839 homes sold in March this year, up 3,584 homes sold in March last year. The median days on the market was 46 days, up 2 year over year.

WASHINGTON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In March 2026, home prices in Washington were down 0.21% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $643,700. On average, the number of homes sold was up 1.7% year over year and there were 7,127 homes sold in March this year, up 7,009 homes sold in March last year. The median days on the market was 31 days, up 6 year over year.

IDAHO HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In March 2026, home prices in Idaho were down 1.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $476,400. On average, the number of homes sold was up 14.3% year over year and there were 2,465 homes sold in March this year, up 2,154 homes sold in March last year. The median days on the market was 68 days, up 6 year over year.

We will always follow transparency and best practices at VMB:

• We embrace lender competition and shop our network of wholesale lending partners to ensure you receive accurate data and benefits without surprises later.
• We produce the rate sheet and all options for a detailed recapture analysis and understanding of the options now or in the future.
• We provide all costs or credits up front. We advise locking at application, as that makes the refinance to see terms that will not vary. We also provide the option to finance costs or not, with pros and cons.
• We embrace analytical accuracy on 3^rd party closing costs and prepaids.
• We are confident in our ability to offer the most competitive options, but in the rare case we do not, we will tell you and confirm the best course of action.

Again, don’t hesitate to contact your VMB Broker for a quick update or to keep track of our custom loan comparison, benefits worksheet, and rate sheets.

WE APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!

Thank you so much for referring your friends, family, and co-workers to us when you hear they are in the market to buy a home or refinance. We greatly appreciate it and rely on these referrals to best serve all in the Pacific NW.  

To reiterate from the last newsletter, we greatly appreciate the support of our clients and business partners referring anyone to us who may be active in this market.  Mortgage lenders are not created equal and competition is vital. As a fiduciary shopping the top wholesale lenders in the country on the same identical agency loans, the value in a market like today is priceless. Interest rates and the math associated with amortization schedules and monthly repayment amounts are vital today. Again, thank you for the continued support of our long-time local team of experts and price leaders.

Reach out to a VMB team member for any questions on rate trends or scenarios.