Vantage Fall 2025 Newsletter

HOT TOPIC: MORTGAGE RATES

If you purchased a home toward the end of 2022 or more recently, we’ve been carefully tracking interest rates to help determine the best opportunities to refinance and reduce your monthly payments.

Many of you bought when rates were at their peak. Last year (August–October 2024), we saw a brief window where rates dropped, and some clients were able to lock in savings of $300–$700 per month or more, often with very short break-even periods and reductions of 1% or greater. Unfortunately, many others hesitated, waiting for further drops, and rates quickly moved back up. In hindsight, some homeowners ended up paying up to $10,000 more in mortgage payments across the year because they missed that window. Of course, nobody could have fully predicted the mix of inflation, tariffs, and market volatility—but it shows why timing matters.

We’re now in another rare environment where opportunities appear and disappear quickly. If you receive an update from us and want to explore options, please let us know right away so we can prioritize running numbers for you. If the timing isn’t right, we’ll simply add you to our monitoring list and keep you informed.

As always, remember: start with us first. Through our network of competing wholesale lenders, we can secure far more favorable terms than what’s typically offered by a loan servicer or captive lender—who often come with higher rates and fees.

We’ll be reaching out to as many of you as possible, but don’t hesitate to contact us directly if you’d like a quick analysis. It only takes a few minutes to update your numbers and show what current savings may look like.

Finally, if you want to track things in real time, keep an eye on the 10-Year Treasury Yield—it’s a leading indicator for where mortgage rates are headed. We recently hit a one-year low, but yields are climbing again, and we’ll continue monitoring and sharing updates with you.

3 REASONS AFFORDABILITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT THIS FALL

For the past couple of years, it’s been tough for a lot of homebuyers to make the numbers work. Home prices shot up. Mortgage rates too. And a number of people hit pause because it just didn’t feel possible. Maybe you were one of them.

But there’s some encouraging news. If you’ve been waiting for a better time to jump back in, affordability may finally be showing signs of improvement this fall.

The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago (see graph below):

And here’s why this is happening. The cost of buying a home really comes down to three things:

• Mortgage rates
• Home prices
• Your wages

Right now, all three are finally moving in a better direction for you. While that doesn’t mean it’s suddenly easy to buy at today’s rates and prices, it does mean it’s not as challenging.

1. Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have come down compared to earlier this year. See Graph Below.

That may not sound like a big deal, but it does matter. Even small changes in rates can make a difference in your future monthly payment. Compared to when rates were at their peak in this graph, if you take out an average $400K mortgage now, it’ll cost about $190 less a month based on just rates alone.

And for some people, that’s been enough to make buying a home possible again. As Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explained on September 10^th:

“The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022 . . . Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace.”

2. Home Prices

After several years of prices rising very rapidly, price growth has finally slowed. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, puts it:

“National home price growth remains positive, but muted — low single digits — and we expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year.”

For buyers, that’s actually a big relief. That moderation makes it easier to plan your budget. And in some markets, prices have even dipped slightly. If you’re in one of the markets, you may be able to find something that’s more affordable than you’d expect.

3. Wages

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), wages are up near 4% annually. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why that number is so important right now:

“Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”

In other words, the typical paycheck is rising faster than home prices right now, which helps make buying a little more affordable. Now, it’s not a big difference, but in a market like this, every bit counts.

What This Means for You

Lower rates, slower price growth, and stronger wages might be enough to make the numbers finally work for you this fall.

While affordability is still tight, it’s a little easier on your wallet to buy now than it was just few months ago. Remember, data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment is already around $290 lower than it was earlier this year.

Bottom Line

Have you been wondering if it’s worth taking another look at buying?

Work with a professional to re-run the numbers. Together you can go over your budget, see what’s changed, and figure out if this fall is the time to turn window-shopping into key-turning.

IS IT BETTER TO BUY NOW OR WAIT FOR LOWER MORTGAGE RATES? HERE’S THE TRADEOFF

In other words, no big changes are expected. But small shifts, like the one we just saw, are still likely.

Each time there’s changing economic news, there’s a chance mortgage rates will react. And with so many reports coming out this week, we’ll get a better feeling of where the economy and inflation are headed – and how rates will respond.

What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again?

The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%:

• 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home
• And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. And if you look back at the graph above, you’ll see Fannie Mae thinks we’ll hit that threshold next year. That raises an important question: Does it really make sense to wait for lower rates?

Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this:

“Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market.”

Consider the unique window that exists right now:

• Inventory is up = more choices
• Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing
• You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal

These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says:

“Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.”

Bottom Line

Rates aren’t expected to hit 6% this year. But when they do, you’ll have to deal with more competition as other buyers jump back in. If you want less pressure and more negotiating power, that opportunity is already here – and it might not last for long. It all depends on what happens in the economy next.

Talk to a local agent about what’s happening in your area and whether it makes sense to make your move now, before everyone else does.

DO YOU KNOW HOW MUCH YOUR HOUSE IS REALLY WORTH?

What Is Home Equity?

That hidden wealth in your home is called equity. It’s the difference between what your house is worth today and what you still owe on your mortgage. Your equity grows over time as home values rise and as you make your monthly payments. Here’s an example to help you really understand how the math works.

Let’s say your house is now worth $500,000, and you have $200,000 left to pay off on your loan. That means you have $300,000 in equity. And that’s right in line with what the typical homeowner has right now.

According to Cotality, the average homeowner with a mortgage has about $302,000 in equity.

Why You Probably Have More Than You Think

Here are the two main reasons homeowners like you have near record amounts of equity right now:

1. Significant Home Price Growth. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices have jumped by nearly 54% nationwide over the last five years (see map below):

This means your house is likely worth much more now than when you first bought it, thanks to how much prices have climbed over time. And if you’re worried because you’ve heard prices are flattening or even coming down in some markets, just know if you’ve been in your house for a few years (or more) you very likely have enough equity to sell and still come out ahead.

2. People Are Living in Their Homes Longer. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shows the average homeowner stays in their home for about 10 years now (see graph below):

That’s longer than it used to be. And over that decade? You’ve built equity just by making your mortgage payments and riding the wave of rising home values. Because the financial side of homeownership is about playing the long game, not worrying about little ups and downs in the market here and there. And over time, that means you’re winning.

So, if you’re one of those people who’s been in their home for a bit, here’s how much the behind-the-scenes price growth has helped you out. According to NAR:

“Over the past decade, the typical homeowner has accumulated $201,600 in wealth solely from price appreciation.”

What Could You Actually Do with That Equity?

Your equity isn’t just a number. It’s a tool you can use to unlock your next big move. Depending on your goals, you could:

• Use it to help buy your next home. Your equity could help you cover the down payment on your next home. In some cases, it might even mean you can buy your next house in all cash.
• Renovate your current house to better suit your life now. And, if you’re strategic about your projects, they could add even more value to your home if you do sell later on.
• Start the business you’ve always dreamed of. Your equity could be exactly what you need for startup costs, equipment, software, or marketing. And that could help increase your earning potential, so you’re getting yet another financial boost.

Bottom Line

Chances are, your house is worth quite a bit right now. If you’re curious about the value of your home, connect with a local agent to run the numbers. That way, you’ll know what you’re working with and where you can go from here.

OREGON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In August 2025, home prices in Oregon were up 1.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $519,300. On average, the number of homes sold was down 0.4% year over year and there were 4,534 homes sold in August this year, down 4,555 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 43 days, up 10 year over year.

WASHINGTON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In August 2025, home prices in Washington were up 0.3% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $646,400. On average, the number of homes sold was down 4.2% year over year and there were 8,124 homes sold in August this year, down 8,479 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 30 days, up 8 year over year.

IDAHO HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In August 2025, home prices in Idaho were up 4.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $500,000. On average, the number of homes sold was up 9.4% year over year and there were 2,782 homes sold in August this year, up 2,539 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 48 days, up 5 year over year.

We will always follow transparency and best practices at VMB:

• We embrace lender competition and shop our network of wholesale lending partners to ensure you receive accurate data and benefits without surprises later.
• We produce the rate sheet and all options for a detailed recapture analysis and understanding of the options now or in the future.
• We provide all costs or credits up front. We advise locking at application, as that makes the refinance to see terms that will not vary. We also provide the option to finance costs or not, with pros and cons.
• We embrace analytical accuracy on 3^rd party closing costs and prepaids.
• We are confident in our ability to offer the most competitive options, but in the rare case we do not, we will tell you and confirm the best course of action.

Again, don’t hesitate to contact your VMB Broker for a quick update or to keep track of our custom loan comparison, benefits worksheet, and rate sheets.

WE APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!

Thank you so much for referring your friends, family, and co-workers to us when you hear they are in the market to buy a home or refinance. We greatly appreciate it and rely on these referrals to best serve all in the Pacific NW.  

To reiterate from the last newsletter, we greatly appreciate the support of our clients and business partners referring anyone to us who may be active in this market.  Mortgage lenders are not created equal and competition is vital. As a fiduciary shopping the top wholesale lenders in the country on the same identical agency loans, the value in a market like today is priceless. Interest rates and the math associated with amortization schedules and monthly repayment amounts are vital today. Again, thank you for the continued support of our long-time local team of experts and price leaders.

Reach out to a VMB team member for any questions on rate trends or scenarios.

VISIT OUR UPDATED WEBSITE

At Vantage Mortgage Brokers, we’re always working to improve how we serve you—not just with great rates and transparent advice, but also with the tools and resources you need at your fingertips. Our updated site makes it easier than ever to:

• Explore loan options with clear, straightforward explanations.
• Access calculators and resources to plan with confidence.
• Stay informed with fresh updates on mortgage rates, news, and insights.
• Connect directly with our team to start your application or get answers fast.

We built this site with you in mind—making it simpler, faster, and more user-friendly whether you’re on your phone, tablet, or computer.

Why It Matters

Unlike lenders tied to a single rate sheet, we operate independently with access to a wide network of competing wholesale lenders. Our mission has always been clear: deliver the best rates, terms, and service for you—not for a single bank or logo. Our new site reflects that commitment and makes it even easier for you to see the Vantage difference.

👉 Take a look today: www.VantageMortgageBrokers.com