Vantage Winter 2026 Newsletter

Happy New Year and Welcome to 2026!

As we begin a new year, we want to take a moment to say thank you. Thank you for the trust you place in us, the conversations we share, and the opportunity to be part of such important financial decisions in your life.

A new year brings perspective. It is a time to reset goals, evaluate priorities, and focus on long-term stability rather than short-term noise. In housing and finance, that mindset matters more than ever.

Whether you purchased a home recently, refinanced in prior years, or are simply watching the market from the sidelines, 2026 is a year to stay informed and intentional. Wise decisions are rarely rushed. They are built on facts, math, and a clear understanding of what actually benefits you.

This year will present opportunities for those who are prepared. That preparation starts with knowing your numbers, understanding your options, and having a trusted advisor who puts your interests first. Our commitment remains the same as always: transparency, competition, and guidance rooted in what is best for you, not what is easiest.

We are excited to continue serving you in 2026 and beyond. If you have questions, want to review your mortgage strategy, or want a second opinion, we are always here as a resource.  Thank you so much for your ongoing referrals! These are the lifeblood of our business.

From all of us at VMB, Happy New Year!

Watching Mortgage Rates in 2026: Why Patience May Pay Off

As we move through 2026, many homeowners are quietly and intentionally watching mortgage rates. Be careful to watch the headlines, but more follow the 10-year treasury yield and trends.

As a reminder, we will reach out to anyone as soon as we see a meaningful interest rate reduction (around 0.75%-1% or more at a low or no-cost, short recapture period). While you’ll see rate trends, our rates will be lower than the national average due to our network of wholesale lenders that compete, so always reach out to us first.

Over the past few years, rates moved quickly and often unpredictably. That environment trained consumers to think in extremes. Lock now or miss out. Wait and lose. In reality, refinancing has never been about guessing the exact bottom. It has always been about strategy, timing, and math.

Why 2026 Is a “Watch, Don’t Rush” Year

Unlike refinance waves of the past, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where opportunities appear in pockets rather than floods. Small rate movements can still create meaningful benefits, especially for borrowers who understand their full financial picture.

Even a modest drop in rates can matter when paired with the right structure. Lower monthly payments, reduced interest over time, term changes, or strategic cash-out positioning are all scenarios where refinancing can make sense without waiting for headline grabbing rate cuts.

The key difference this year is preparation.

Refinancing Is Not Just About Rates

Many homeowners focus exclusively on the note rate, but refinancing decisions should factor in more than a single number.

Consider:

• How long you plan to keep the loan
• Whether reducing payment or total interest is the goal
• Opportunities to remove mortgage insurance
• Consolidating higher interest debt
• Adjusting loan term for retirement or cash flow planning

When rates move, even slightly, borrowers who already know their numbers can act decisively. Those who wait to “start thinking about it” after rates drop often miss the best execution window.

The Advantage of Being Informed Early

Homeowners who benefit most from refinancing are rarely reacting. They are positioned.

That means knowing your current rate, balance, credit profile, and break-even point before opportunities appear. It also means understanding that the best refinance option is not always tied to a single lender or advertised special. True savings often come from lender competition, structure, and precise execution.

What To Do Now

If you are watching rates in 2026, you are doing the right thing. The next step is to ensure you understand which rate movements actually help you and which do not.

Refinancing is not a one-size-fits-all decision. It is a math problem tied to your timeline, your equity, and your goals.

The homeowners who win are the ones who prepare before the window opens.

Please contact us to request a loan comparison worksheet or to update your information at any time if you’re tracking rates. We can advise whether it’s best to review now or hold.

Reasons To Be Optimistic About The 2026 Housing Market

If a move is on your radar for 2026, there’s a lot more working in your favor than there has been in a while.

After a stretch where many people felt stuck, 2026 is shaping up to be a year with more balance, more options, and more clarity for people who want to make a move. Not because the market is suddenly “easy,” but because several key conditions are shifting.

Here’s what the experts are saying you have to look forward to.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:

“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market.”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“Top economists have one word to sum up the housing market for 2026: opportunity. Lower mortgage rates and a rising supply of homes are expected to open up the housing market . . . something the real estate industry and potential home buyers and sellers have been waiting for, following three years of stagnation.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:

“. . . for the first time in several years, the underlying forces are finally aligned toward gradual improvement. Mortgage rates may drift down only slowly, but income growth exceeding house price appreciation will provide a boost to house-buying power — even in a higher-rate world. Affordability won’t snap back overnight, but like a ship finally catching a steady tailwind, it’s now sailing in the right direction.”

Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow:

“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”

Why Local Insight Matters More Than Ever

Just remember, while the national outlook is improving, conditions will still be different based on where you live. Some markets will move faster than others. Some will see stronger price growth. Others will remain flat. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

“Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we’ve seen in years.”

That’s why understanding what’s happening in your specific area is key. The national trends set the stage, but local dynamics determine how they play out for you. And that’s why you need an agent.

Bottom Line

If you want more information on what these trends mean for your local market and which trends you’ll want to take advantage of, reach out to us anytime.

Why More Homeowners Are Giving Up Their Low Mortgage Rate

Why Are More People Moving Now, if It Means Taking on a Higher Rate?

It’s simple. Sometimes they can’t put their life on pause anymore. Families grow, jobs change, priorities shift, and a house that once fit perfectly may not fit at all anymore – no matter how good their rate was. And that’s okay. As Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, explains:

“More homeowners are deciding it’s worth moving even if it means giving up a lower mortgage rate. Life doesn’t standstill—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood. Those needs are starting to outweigh the financial benefit of clinging to a rock-bottom mortgage rate.”

First American refers to these life motivators as the 5 Ds:

• Diplomas: People with college degrees typically earn more, and that adds up to more buying power. Maybe you bought your house when you were younger and now that you’ve graduated and have a rising career, you’re ready to move up.
• Diapers: You’ve outgrown your space. If you’re welcoming a new baby, your current home might not be cutting it anymore.
• Divorce: Whether it’s ending a marriage (or starting one), it can create the need for a new place to call home.
• Downsizing: You’re ready to downsize. Maybe the kids have moved out and it’s time to simplify. Smaller house, less maintenance, more freedom.
• Death: If you’ve recently lost a loved one, maybe you’ve realized you want to be closer to family. Life’s too short to live far from the people who matter most.

Whatever your reason, here’s what you need to think about. Yes, your low rate is great. But staying put means your life may stay on hold. And maybe that’s not working for you anymore.

According to Realtor.com, nearly 2 in 3 potential sellers have already been thinking about moving for over a year. That’s a long time to press pause on your plans. On your needs. On your family’s goals. So, maybe the question isn’t: “Should I move?”

It’s actually: “How much longer am I willing to stay somewhere that no longer fits my life?”

Because we’ve already seen rates come down from their peak earlier this year. And they’re expected to ease a bit more in 2026. When you stack that on top of the very real reasons you may need a new home, it may be enough to finally move the needle for you.

Bottom Line

Life doesn’t wait for the perfect rate. Maybe you shouldn’t either.

With mortgage rates down from their peak and forecast to dip slightly more in 2026, moving may be more feasible than you think. If you’re ready to see what’s possible in your market, connect with a local agent and lender.

OREGON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In November 2025, home prices in Oregon were up 0.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $507,000. On average, the number of homes sold was down 7.5% year over year and there were 3,693 homes sold in August this year, down 4,555 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 55 days, up 10 year over year.

WASHINGTON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In November 2025, home prices in Washington were down 1.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $626,300. On average, the number of homes sold was down 11.0% year over year and there were 6,011 homes sold in August this year, down 6,756 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 42 days, up 9 year over year.

IDAHO HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In November 2025, home prices in Idaho were up 9.3% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $512,300. On average, the number of homes sold was down 5.3% year over year and there were 2,147 homes sold in August this year, down 2,265 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 66 days, up 7 year over year.

We will always follow transparency and best practices at VMB:

• We embrace lender competition and shop our network of wholesale lending partners to ensure you receive accurate data and benefits without surprises later.
• We produce the rate sheet and all options for a detailed recapture analysis and understanding of the options now or in the future.
• We provide all costs or credits up front. We advise locking at application, as that makes the refinance to see terms that will not vary. We also provide the option to finance costs or not, with pros and cons.
• We embrace analytical accuracy on 3^rd party closing costs and prepaids.
• We are confident in our ability to offer the most competitive options, but in the rare case we do not, we will tell you and confirm the best course of action.

Again, don’t hesitate to contact your VMB Broker for a quick update or to keep track of our custom loan comparison, benefits worksheet, and rate sheets.

WE APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!

Thank you so much for referring your friends, family, and co-workers to us when you hear they are in the market to buy a home or refinance. We greatly appreciate it and rely on these referrals to best serve all in the Pacific NW.  

To reiterate from the last newsletter, we greatly appreciate the support of our clients and business partners referring anyone to us who may be active in this market.  Mortgage lenders are not created equal and competition is vital. As a fiduciary shopping the top wholesale lenders in the country on the same identical agency loans, the value in a market like today is priceless. Interest rates and the math associated with amortization schedules and monthly repayment amounts are vital today. Again, thank you for the continued support of our long-time local team of experts and price leaders.

Reach out to a VMB team member for any questions on rate trends or scenarios.