Vantage Fall 2026 Newsletter

Mortgage & Economic Update: Why Rates Are Moving Again

If it feels like mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster lately, you’re not imagining it.

Mortgage rates improved earlier this summer before reversing course more recently as financial markets began digesting a combination of stubborn inflation, rising energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

What’s Driving Mortgage Rates?

Energy costs have risen sharply compared with a year ago, with gasoline prices contributing significantly to the latest increase in consumer inflation. Higher energy costs matter because they don’t just affect what we pay at the pump. They can increase transportation, manufacturing, food, and distribution costs throughout the economy.

That creates a problem for interest rates.

The Federal Reserve wants inflation moving sustainably toward its 2% target. However, recent inflation data has remained elevated, while the broader economy has continued to show resilience. The Fed responded in September by raising its benchmark rate for the first time in several years.

For mortgages, however, what matters most isn’t simply what the Fed did. It’s what the bond market believes happens next.

If inflation continues cooling and economic growth slows, that could create an environment for mortgage rates to improve. If inflation remains stubborn, energy prices continue climbing, or the economy stays stronger than anticipated, longer-term rates could remain elevated or volatile.

That’s why we continue to monitor the markets closely rather than trying to predict one specific direction.

Shopping Your Mortgage & AI

A Reminder To Our Past Clients: Call Us Before Your Next Mortgage

This may be the most important part of this update.

Before you buy another home, refinance, purchase an investment property, or accept an offer from your current mortgage servicer, please call us.

As an independent mortgage broker, our responsibility is to work in our clients’ interests. We have access to multiple wholesale lenders and can compare options rather than having your loan automatically placed with one company.

We’ve recently reached out to several past clients who sold their homes and purchased new ones or refinanced directly through their existing loan servicer without contacting us.

Unfortunately, some discovered afterward that they had accepted higher rates, higher fees, or both, without realizing that better options may have been available.

A mortgage servicer contacting you about a refinance already has something very valuable: your business.

They don’t necessarily have to compete for it unless you create competition.

That’s one of the biggest reasons independent mortgage brokers exist.

One conversation with our local team allows us to shop and compare multiple lenders on your behalf. Even if the offer you already have turns out to be the best option, you’ll have the confidence of knowing it was actually compared.

There is never an obligation to use us. We simply want our past clients to give us the opportunity to make sure the market is competing for their business.

The Best Time To Buy A Home in 2026 Is Almost Here

Want to buy a house this year, but not sure if the timing’s right? Seasonally, it may actually be a better time to buy than you expect.

Yes, mortgage rates have been ticking up lately – and that’s creating some real challenges with affordability. No one’s arguing that. But there are also predictable trends that happen this time every year that can put some wind back in your sails.

According to research coming out of Realtor.com, nationally, the week of September 27 – October 3 will be the best time to buy this year for this very reason:

“The week of September 27–October 3 brings together the market conditions buyers value most—elevated inventory, less competition and prices that have eased from their seasonal high—giving prepared buyers a way to offset high rates with savings on price and room to negotiate with confidence.”

But that’s the national best week. Depending on where you live, your local sweet spot may come a little earlier or later (see map below):

Realtor.com says buyers during this window could see home prices about $14,000 lower than the summer peak, along with 30% less competition from other buyers. Plus, homes tend to stay on the market almost 2 weeks longer (13 days), giving you a little more breathing room to make a decision.

More choices.

Better pricing.

Less competition.

That combination could be enough to ease some of the pressure higher mortgage rates are putting on your budget.

The Market Changed. Your Reason For Moving Didn’t.

You may be telling yourself you’re going to wait to move – maybe you’re hoping mortgage rates will come down, prices will fall, or the market will feel a little easier.

And honestly? A lot of people feel that way right now. But here’s what some are starting to realize.

Waiting doesn’t usually fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place.

Your family still desperately needs more room.
Your empty nest still feels too…empty.

Your parents or grandparents still need you to live closer.

You just got married… or divorced.

Your vision of retirement has you living somewhere else.

Eventually, life can reach a point where waiting feels harder than moving.

That’s why some people are still deciding to buy right now, even in today’s market. Not because conditions are perfect. But because the life changes behind their move never really went away.

And maybe that’s exactly where you are too. If so, you’re certainly not alone.

These are exactly the kinds of things that can change how much space you need, where you want to live, or what kind of lifestyle makes sense now. Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, explains:

“Life doesn’t stand still—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood.”

And that’s what makes waiting so hard. Every month you spend hoping the market changes is another month living in a house that no longer works for your life. It’s stressful to feel stuck. And that feeling usually doesn’t disappear.

Worried About a Housing Crash? The Numbers Tell A Calmer Story.

A recent survey from Talker Research asked Americans to pick one word to describe how 2026 has felt so far. The winner? Stressful. And honestly, there’s been a lot going on.

So, it’s understandable if you’ve been putting off buying or selling a home until things settle down. But you may be waiting on something that’s already happened. While everything else has felt shaky, the housing market has become one of the steadiest things out there. Look at the data.

The Supply of Homes for Sale Has Steadied

For years, the supply of homes for sale was a moving target. It dropped fast during the pandemic and has been climbing pretty reliably ever since. Now, that pace of growth has slowed down. According to Realtor.com, inventory today is very close to where it was this time last year (see graph).

That’s helpful no matter which side you’re on. When the number of homes for sale isn’t changing much, you know what you’re walking into – how many options you’ll have as a buyer, and how much competition you’ll face as a seller.

Mortgage Rates Found Their Range

Yes, rates jumped dramatically back in 2022. But since then, Freddie Mac data shows they’ve stayed between 6% and 7% for the better part of the last 3 or so years (see graph).

Yes, there was one brief spike above that threshold, but overall, rates have stayed in that range for a while now. That predictability helps when you’re planning a move.

And now that this seems to be a longer-term trend, people have accepted it as the new normal. Buyers have gotten comfortable purchasing in that range, and sellers have gotten just as comfortable listing in it.

That comfort’s important because when both sides know what to expect, they keep making moves. In other words, the market isn’t frozen waiting for something to change. It’s moving calmly.

OREGON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In August 2026, home prices in Oregon were down 0.61% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $506,889. On average, the number of homes sold was down 1.7% year over year and there were 3,896 homes sold in August this year, down 3,964 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 39 days, down 6 year over year.

WASHINGTON HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In August 2026, home prices in Washington were down 2.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $597,504. On average, the number of homes sold was down 2.8% year over year and there were 7,102 homes sold in August this year, down 7,308 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 32 days, up 4 year over year.

IDAHO HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

In August 2026, home prices in Idaho were up 7.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $512,859. On average, the number of homes sold was up 10.1% year over year and there were 2,758 homes sold in August this year, up 2,506 homes sold in August last year. The median days on the market was 48 days, down 5 year over year.

We will always follow transparency and best practices at VMB:

• We embrace lender competition and shop our network of wholesale lending partners to ensure you receive accurate data and benefits without surprises later.
• We produce the rate sheet and all options for a detailed recapture analysis and understanding of the options now or in the future.
• We provide all costs or credits up front. We advise locking at application, as that makes the refinance to see terms that will not vary. We also provide the option to finance costs or not, with pros and cons.
• We embrace analytical accuracy on 3^rd party closing costs and prepaids.
• We are confident in our ability to offer the most competitive options, but in the rare case we do not, we will tell you and confirm the best course of action.

Again, don’t hesitate to contact your VMB Broker for a quick update or to keep track of our custom loan comparison, benefits worksheet, and rate sheets.

THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING A LOCAL SMALL BUISNESS!